* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 57 69 72 75 78 84 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 57 69 72 75 78 84 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 44 53 67 83 96 101 101 99 SHEAR (KT) 13 18 19 13 12 12 5 5 8 6 7 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -3 -3 0 -4 -4 -1 -6 -1 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 65 62 74 85 74 65 95 79 189 229 243 269 257 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 163 161 164 164 162 159 160 162 162 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 157 158 159 158 162 162 159 154 154 155 155 159 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 67 65 60 61 56 56 56 54 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 37 40 42 34 32 20 27 25 25 24 30 200 MB DIV 37 11 22 43 49 46 32 22 24 26 24 7 13 LAND (KM) 189 201 233 274 311 389 330 271 185 124 66 0 45 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.5 61.0 61.7 62.4 64.2 66.1 68.2 70.3 72.4 74.4 76.4 78.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 7 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 108 104 66 105 86 97 125 125 87 110 101 108 122 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 21. 32. 44. 47. 50. 53. 59. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/10/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)