* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 27 33 36 36 36 31 26 19 17 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 27 33 36 36 36 31 26 19 17 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 29 29 28 26 22 19 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 4 2 8 3 9 12 17 25 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -8 -3 -7 1 -1 0 5 12 6 7 SHEAR DIR 344 359 355 338 357 340 295 274 233 227 224 227 241 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 143 143 142 139 136 130 127 126 125 126 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 51 53 54 51 51 48 47 48 51 53 51 47 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 7 4 5 1 6 1 -4 -16 -23 -27 -15 200 MB DIV 26 41 45 52 60 31 60 41 54 6 28 -9 -21 LAND (KM) 1031 984 953 916 894 882 873 871 838 775 661 594 560 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.4 12.1 12.9 14.1 15.3 16.4 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 152.0 153.2 154.4 155.5 156.5 158.3 159.7 160.9 161.8 162.1 162.1 162.2 162.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 18 16 15 46 50 39 25 18 17 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 16. 16. 16. 11. 6. -1. -3. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY