* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 53 63 74 83 90 94 97 98 100 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 53 63 74 83 90 94 97 98 100 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 50 60 71 83 92 98 98 97 97 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 7 5 7 6 3 5 5 6 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 1 4 1 0 3 0 2 5 5 15 SHEAR DIR 52 63 75 61 60 34 10 355 329 210 285 230 280 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 131 130 128 131 136 139 141 143 145 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 130 129 127 123 125 130 133 134 134 136 141 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 67 65 65 68 64 64 69 66 65 63 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 18 19 20 22 22 23 24 29 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 76 76 75 68 69 83 88 86 65 55 53 62 86 200 MB DIV 24 25 18 0 -4 26 63 33 23 39 44 62 65 LAND (KM) 1380 1525 1670 1846 2022 1938 1810 1651 1519 1464 1409 1307 1152 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.9 18.9 19.6 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.7 33.0 34.7 36.3 39.4 41.8 44.2 46.6 48.9 50.9 52.9 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 16 15 13 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 12 13 14 29 38 45 47 52 53 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 39. 48. 55. 59. 62. 64. 65. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/10/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)