* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 63 73 79 83 86 91 98 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 63 73 79 83 86 91 98 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 60 77 95 108 113 114 116 SHEAR (KT) 14 18 15 10 11 12 2 10 2 7 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -6 0 -2 2 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 65 76 92 53 99 50 92 191 173 265 181 266 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 162 162 164 164 159 157 159 163 167 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 160 161 160 160 163 162 157 155 156 160 165 160 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 69 66 68 64 65 63 62 61 60 61 62 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 39 37 31 27 32 28 32 40 36 47 39 200 MB DIV 18 27 47 52 39 40 6 36 5 41 -4 3 5 LAND (KM) 238 255 296 327 355 390 341 280 222 199 78 186 291 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.0 61.7 62.7 63.6 65.6 67.9 70.1 72.5 74.9 77.3 79.9 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 114 71 105 89 99 103 135 78 101 116 120 140 127 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 3. 11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 38. 48. 54. 58. 61. 66. 73. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/10/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)