* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 35 36 31 27 23 22 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 35 36 31 27 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 29 29 27 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 2 7 11 12 16 13 19 18 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -5 -7 -5 -1 -5 -3 0 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 4 360 343 311 318 341 313 308 279 258 244 252 255 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 143 143 143 140 136 132 128 126 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 53 53 49 51 49 52 52 48 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 2 4 1 3 6 -3 -16 -29 -25 -21 -7 200 MB DIV 46 39 46 54 58 55 35 30 27 12 13 -5 -12 LAND (KM) 989 952 933 925 930 957 980 989 947 881 808 776 796 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.2 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 153.2 154.5 155.7 156.8 157.8 159.6 160.9 162.0 162.5 162.7 162.7 162.9 163.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 16 15 32 55 41 33 29 23 21 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 15. 16. 11. 7. 3. 2. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED