* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/10/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 59 69 74 78 82 89 99 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 59 69 74 78 82 89 99 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 40 52 66 81 94 103 108 111 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 13 10 6 8 6 4 9 5 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 54 67 64 37 49 79 37 136 134 198 232 220 175 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 162 164 164 163 159 159 161 165 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 162 163 161 163 162 160 156 155 157 162 165 162 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 63 60 61 57 58 57 56 58 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 36 30 26 28 21 21 30 32 34 38 26 200 MB DIV 26 46 57 41 37 31 31 6 19 12 14 20 14 LAND (KM) 274 301 344 383 423 325 278 185 168 115 53 276 293 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.3 62.2 63.3 64.3 66.4 68.6 70.9 73.2 75.5 78.1 80.9 83.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 104 107 99 100 98 128 120 87 116 102 109 142 141 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -1. 4. 12. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 34. 44. 49. 53. 57. 64. 74. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 101.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/10/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/10/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)