* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/10/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 30 36 39 39 35 34 30 28 26 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 30 36 39 39 35 34 30 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 29 31 31 30 29 27 24 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 10 12 19 16 22 15 22 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -5 -8 -8 -5 -2 0 -4 -3 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 331 360 348 359 344 328 326 301 297 277 238 222 217 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 144 144 142 141 137 134 131 130 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 51 52 51 46 46 44 44 45 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 8 7 8 12 0 -13 -29 -35 -30 -22 -13 200 MB DIV 39 34 40 36 33 50 5 18 7 8 9 10 8 LAND (KM) 977 952 947 953 973 1016 1075 1096 1103 1047 985 933 927 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 153.7 155.0 156.3 157.4 158.5 160.2 161.7 162.9 163.7 164.2 164.5 164.9 165.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 16 16 47 56 46 36 35 31 30 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 19. 19. 15. 14. 10. 8. 6. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/10/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/10/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY