* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/11/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 62 71 80 88 92 94 92 93 93 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 62 71 80 88 92 94 92 93 93 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 59 63 72 82 89 93 94 92 90 92 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 6 9 2 12 8 12 8 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 5 5 -1 3 0 3 3 2 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 67 48 42 41 7 281 278 270 253 227 256 196 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 127 127 127 132 136 138 141 143 145 149 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 122 122 122 126 129 130 132 134 135 137 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 66 67 65 69 65 64 63 64 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 18 19 18 21 25 26 27 28 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 77 68 74 76 82 77 72 56 48 53 62 74 101 200 MB DIV 19 19 26 42 53 46 48 21 16 38 51 67 89 LAND (KM) 1801 1967 2119 2022 1932 1770 1637 1546 1487 1380 1298 1190 1037 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.8 37.3 38.7 40.1 42.5 44.9 47.1 49.1 51.0 52.8 54.5 56.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 13 16 30 37 45 49 56 54 66 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 7. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 35. 43. 47. 49. 47. 48. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/11/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/11/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)