* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/11/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 66 69 72 76 81 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 66 65 68 59 71 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 50 63 75 84 74 87 95 SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 13 10 9 7 3 10 7 10 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 2 0 -5 3 -3 -3 -6 -5 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 70 57 33 37 76 19 96 287 215 257 224 293 270 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 162 164 164 164 161 160 162 164 170 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 163 160 163 162 161 156 154 154 156 160 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 68 65 63 61 62 58 55 58 55 55 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 28 22 22 18 15 13 7 3 3 0 11 200 MB DIV 55 60 48 52 44 11 18 -15 2 -18 1 10 17 LAND (KM) 289 344 388 418 325 213 143 2 30 55 -4 115 136 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.5 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 62.1 63.0 64.0 65.0 67.1 69.2 71.3 73.2 75.3 77.4 79.5 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 99 102 100 103 103 123 90 100 19 95 99 127 129 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 41. 44. 47. 51. 56. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 101.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/11/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)