* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/11/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 46 41 37 31 27 23 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 46 41 37 31 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 42 43 42 39 36 32 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 9 11 14 12 13 9 14 22 31 36 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -8 -9 -9 -6 0 0 -1 -2 -1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 315 305 324 327 344 333 321 288 289 262 240 233 220 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 144 141 139 135 133 132 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 50 50 49 50 49 49 48 43 46 43 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 1 2 5 2 -8 -19 -36 -35 -35 -23 -15 200 MB DIV 40 50 38 23 46 35 20 10 21 20 5 9 5 LAND (KM) 933 932 949 971 1006 1072 1120 1158 1138 1098 1052 1023 1043 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.7 12.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 155.3 156.5 157.7 158.8 159.8 161.5 163.0 164.2 165.2 165.8 166.3 166.8 167.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 26 51 56 48 27 36 36 35 35 37 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 21. 16. 12. 6. 2. -2. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/11/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/11/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY