* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/11/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 72 78 83 93 101 107 112 115 113 110 112 V (KT) LAND 60 67 72 78 83 93 101 107 112 115 113 110 112 V (KT) LGE mod 60 69 76 82 87 95 103 108 112 111 110 108 108 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 9 10 10 8 8 6 2 7 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 -2 2 0 1 3 12 8 8 -3 SHEAR DIR 70 72 49 38 26 11 9 351 290 75 320 188 218 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 128 130 133 137 140 142 145 146 151 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 123 126 128 132 133 134 136 137 140 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -49.6 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 61 61 59 58 58 59 63 63 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 21 22 24 27 30 31 31 37 850 MB ENV VOR 71 80 89 89 87 80 59 54 51 50 59 74 102 200 MB DIV 16 22 35 47 51 54 15 30 15 71 49 102 66 LAND (KM) 2087 2023 1927 1837 1746 1592 1483 1413 1289 1190 1130 984 872 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 36.9 38.4 39.8 41.2 42.6 45.2 47.6 49.7 51.6 53.3 55.0 56.5 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 15 25 31 38 46 54 64 73 73 77 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 262 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 18. 23. 33. 41. 47. 52. 55. 53. 50. 52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/11/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/11/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/11/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 14( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)