* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/11/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 48 59 70 75 81 86 95 102 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 48 59 70 65 77 81 90 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 34 43 55 71 76 96 109 115 72 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 7 6 8 1 2 5 2 6 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 -3 -1 2 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 57 29 44 64 65 30 152 106 227 201 273 24 299 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 165 165 161 159 161 165 169 166 158 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 164 164 164 164 159 157 158 161 167 163 153 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 67 63 63 63 62 61 61 59 62 63 61 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 25 26 28 21 27 34 32 30 22 23 8 200 MB DIV 51 35 50 52 40 18 8 14 3 1 4 15 19 LAND (KM) 344 394 376 321 287 238 161 108 -17 203 317 125 -124 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.0 65.1 66.3 67.5 69.9 72.5 74.9 77.4 80.2 83.2 86.2 88.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 94 101 99 125 129 88 109 100 80 145 135 113 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -1. 4. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 23. 34. 45. 50. 56. 61. 70. 77. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 109.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/11/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)