* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 09/11/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 32 40 48 55 61 63 61 59 56 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 30 33 40 48 56 61 63 62 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 29 32 37 42 46 50 54 55 55 54 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 6 3 4 12 11 13 13 16 16 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 8 0 -3 0 0 3 2 2 -9 SHEAR DIR 63 60 96 140 224 218 234 248 240 193 243 208 218 SST (C) 26.6 27.4 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 131 140 140 139 137 133 132 129 122 119 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 131 142 142 140 138 130 127 121 113 109 107 107 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 10 11 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 74 76 72 72 69 64 61 56 53 48 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 92 91 98 97 94 100 97 85 72 56 47 27 200 MB DIV 36 35 53 37 25 40 54 56 43 29 46 34 11 LAND (KM) -247 -133 -64 102 218 537 849 1112 1326 1505 1621 1730 1867 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.1 17.0 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 13.3 14.8 16.2 17.8 19.3 22.5 25.4 27.8 29.7 31.2 32.4 33.6 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 12 21 17 7 8 9 10 7 5 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 378 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 35. 41. 43. 41. 39. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 09/11/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 09/11/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED