* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/11/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 75 83 92 101 108 111 114 117 113 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 75 83 92 101 108 111 114 117 113 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 74 78 87 96 103 109 113 114 116 116 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 11 10 5 6 1 7 3 3 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 1 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 62 54 58 43 37 13 17 360 355 39 355 231 126 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 132 134 137 140 143 145 148 151 153 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 127 130 132 134 135 136 138 140 142 144 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.4 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 59 62 61 59 55 60 60 62 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 19 20 21 21 23 27 30 28 33 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 79 89 91 87 77 62 52 50 55 55 67 92 126 200 MB DIV 14 35 38 44 49 40 21 22 35 63 45 63 51 LAND (KM) 2013 1911 1815 1724 1642 1517 1420 1269 1136 1067 1015 845 677 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 38.7 40.2 41.6 43.1 44.5 47.3 49.5 51.6 53.3 54.8 56.1 57.9 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 28 33 36 45 52 64 75 74 82 79 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 5. 9. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 32. 41. 48. 51. 54. 57. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/11/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/11/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/11/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 9( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)