* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/11/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 62 72 79 85 91 100 107 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 62 72 63 75 80 89 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 44 57 73 76 98 113 123 78 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 9 7 8 9 2 8 1 6 2 1 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -5 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 39 46 71 66 53 82 38 159 324 183 33 123 306 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 165 163 159 159 161 165 169 165 158 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 164 164 163 161 156 155 156 162 166 162 152 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 10 11 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 65 66 64 63 60 63 65 61 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 30 30 24 27 28 34 33 37 21 34 16 200 MB DIV 53 52 60 41 9 19 -2 22 4 5 11 26 23 LAND (KM) 366 418 355 305 293 188 144 103 -21 215 307 132 -100 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.7 65.8 67.0 68.1 70.4 72.7 75.0 77.6 80.3 83.2 86.1 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 99 96 107 129 130 84 111 97 119 145 135 112 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -1. 4. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 37. 47. 54. 60. 66. 75. 82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 112.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/11/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)