* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/11/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 23 26 30 32 30 29 26 24 23 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 23 26 30 32 30 29 26 24 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 18 17 17 18 20 21 23 24 24 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 11 14 13 13 16 9 10 14 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -5 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -2 1 5 5 SHEAR DIR 291 329 355 351 348 347 341 324 289 235 216 229 220 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 143 141 138 135 134 133 132 132 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 54 56 55 52 51 49 46 48 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 3 1 0 -7 -13 -20 -31 -39 -37 -27 -21 200 MB DIV 21 1 5 0 2 29 17 10 20 29 2 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 1003 1038 1086 1136 1192 1298 1360 1376 1390 1375 1364 1371 1383 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 158.1 159.3 160.4 161.4 162.4 164.3 165.9 167.2 168.1 168.6 169.0 169.5 170.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 55 56 50 48 36 18 38 37 38 40 42 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 10. 9. 6. 4. 3. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/11/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/11/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED