* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 70 75 85 97 105 112 118 123 121 124 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 70 75 85 97 105 112 118 123 121 124 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 65 69 74 85 96 105 112 116 116 117 117 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 3 4 2 2 4 7 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 4 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 39 27 21 23 12 355 104 353 333 80 4 354 6 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 135 137 139 141 144 146 149 152 154 153 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 131 132 134 134 136 138 140 141 142 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.3 -49.6 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 64 60 59 62 57 57 55 59 58 58 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 20 22 23 27 29 30 34 37 35 42 850 MB ENV VOR 91 92 91 84 78 63 64 69 71 78 91 114 151 200 MB DIV 18 36 49 65 72 47 45 46 66 52 105 -15 89 LAND (KM) 1903 1807 1710 1629 1559 1457 1351 1194 1093 1044 920 790 650 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.9 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.9 43.4 44.8 46.2 48.6 50.6 52.5 54.3 55.8 57.1 58.6 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 29 34 37 41 48 63 69 76 80 78 78 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 10. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 37. 45. 52. 58. 63. 61. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/11/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 10( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 7( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)