* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 43 53 67 75 81 86 92 100 109 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 43 53 67 75 81 86 92 82 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 32 36 47 62 79 99 118 127 109 54 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 11 14 6 3 2 3 5 1 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -6 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 39 64 56 18 52 131 82 142 305 255 319 139 88 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 161 159 159 159 163 167 165 165 153 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 164 160 158 156 155 154 158 164 162 161 147 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 62 63 62 61 59 63 62 61 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 36 32 32 43 45 36 40 36 39 40 26 200 MB DIV 43 49 31 14 23 5 19 8 15 14 14 27 22 LAND (KM) 378 333 322 292 237 185 150 36 128 358 251 -46 -9 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.9 68.0 69.1 70.2 72.5 74.7 76.9 79.5 82.2 85.1 87.9 90.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 101 128 134 114 80 106 109 107 134 129 155 84 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. 4. 10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 28. 42. 50. 56. 61. 67. 75. 84. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 111.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/11/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)