* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 09/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 36 48 62 73 78 82 83 80 77 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 36 48 62 73 78 82 83 80 77 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 27 34 45 57 67 70 67 64 62 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 4 5 3 4 10 15 18 22 27 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 6 2 0 -4 0 1 0 0 8 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 87 103 128 130 99 51 269 285 249 238 177 208 204 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 138 138 137 134 132 128 122 118 117 119 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 138 138 138 136 132 128 121 114 108 107 108 109 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 69 69 64 62 60 56 53 47 47 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 14 15 15 16 17 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 89 102 102 109 104 97 99 80 67 73 48 40 26 200 MB DIV 46 27 20 26 49 40 56 51 55 57 85 9 3 LAND (KM) 32 178 286 412 552 848 1122 1338 1531 1640 1752 1893 2048 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.2 15.0 16.0 17.1 18.5 19.8 21.2 22.5 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 17.1 18.5 19.8 21.2 22.6 25.4 27.9 29.8 31.4 32.7 33.9 35.3 36.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 14 14 14 12 10 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 20 11 11 7 9 10 10 6 5 5 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 360 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 28. 42. 53. 59. 62. 63. 60. 57. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 09/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 09/11/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED