* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952010 09/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 20 20 20 19 17 15 SHEAR (KT) 25 24 20 18 20 19 24 30 33 36 37 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -7 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 4 7 8 SHEAR DIR 323 338 345 340 332 317 314 292 277 255 247 230 223 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 144 143 142 139 137 137 135 134 133 134 137 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 51 53 55 55 56 49 47 47 45 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 0 -2 -3 -17 -18 -25 -32 -35 -27 -23 -20 200 MB DIV 0 -14 -22 -33 -32 -8 -9 3 33 51 31 56 44 LAND (KM) 1081 1138 1201 1266 1337 1430 1474 1513 1543 1526 1515 1515 1552 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.8 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 15.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 160.3 161.4 162.4 163.5 164.5 166.5 168.3 169.7 170.7 171.3 171.8 172.4 173.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 50 48 51 45 27 39 43 47 47 48 52 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 0. -3. -8. -10. -11. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952010 INVEST 09/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952010 INVEST 09/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY