* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/12/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 73 77 83 94 102 109 116 120 124 121 119 V (KT) LAND 65 68 73 77 83 94 102 109 116 120 124 121 119 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 74 79 84 93 101 106 110 114 116 116 112 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 8 3 5 1 5 3 8 2 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 3 4 0 -3 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 48 9 7 2 326 18 146 349 40 37 323 219 254 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 138 140 143 145 148 151 154 152 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 132 132 134 135 137 138 140 142 139 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -49.6 -49.3 -49.4 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 11 12 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 63 60 58 53 53 55 53 53 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 21 23 27 28 31 33 34 39 39 41 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 83 76 72 65 65 74 77 88 101 123 150 200 MB DIV 28 44 65 76 71 36 47 34 12 75 50 28 57 LAND (KM) 1834 1736 1649 1583 1527 1441 1295 1176 1109 963 852 758 683 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.2 44.7 46.0 47.3 49.5 51.7 53.6 55.2 56.7 58.0 59.4 60.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 33 36 41 44 52 63 74 75 79 77 65 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 29. 37. 44. 51. 55. 59. 56. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/12/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 9( 14) 16( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 16( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)