* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/12/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 65 73 79 85 92 99 105 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 52 56 59 65 72 68 43 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 32 35 46 53 58 76 96 111 54 69 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 12 13 6 3 3 7 3 5 0 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 -4 0 -2 0 4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 77 47 1 30 59 70 178 316 204 356 263 336 174 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.8 28.9 28.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 161 159 159 161 163 169 167 167 151 148 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 161 158 156 155 156 157 164 162 163 144 138 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 65 61 63 63 63 62 61 62 61 62 67 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 36 36 40 43 40 35 41 35 41 26 17 200 MB DIV 48 4 -14 5 10 3 2 0 -1 8 23 18 40 LAND (KM) 309 277 246 152 133 107 -10 77 337 255 -7 -29 204 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 68.7 69.8 71.0 72.1 74.4 76.5 79.0 81.7 84.5 87.4 90.0 92.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 132 119 90 92 106 104 107 125 130 146 15 28 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 395 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. 3. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 27. 40. 48. 54. 60. 67. 74. 80. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 107.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/12/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)