* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 09/12/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 46 59 71 80 85 86 82 77 72 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 46 59 71 80 85 86 82 77 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 52 67 81 86 82 73 66 62 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 5 4 7 7 7 14 17 29 31 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 0 -2 -3 -4 4 1 7 0 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 78 83 86 94 50 28 328 287 229 225 213 213 231 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 137 135 135 134 130 123 118 117 117 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 138 136 134 132 128 122 114 109 107 108 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 69 69 65 62 57 53 47 40 41 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 14 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 100 101 108 107 111 106 101 74 62 42 19 0 -36 200 MB DIV 14 15 16 39 39 54 46 68 45 54 33 -24 -27 LAND (KM) 183 322 436 562 698 956 1162 1333 1476 1569 1669 1839 2014 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.6 15.7 16.8 18.2 19.7 21.2 22.9 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.9 21.2 22.6 23.9 26.4 28.3 29.8 30.9 32.0 33.1 34.8 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 11 9 8 10 12 10 7 5 4 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 413 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 34. 46. 55. 60. 61. 57. 52. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 09/12/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 09/12/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED