* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/12/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 77 81 92 100 109 119 122 125 125 119 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 77 81 92 100 109 119 122 125 125 119 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 77 82 92 99 105 111 117 120 118 113 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 3 8 12 4 13 5 10 2 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -3 -1 3 -3 0 -2 1 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 23 14 355 26 112 98 182 26 48 46 210 256 250 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 140 141 144 146 150 153 153 153 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 133 133 134 137 137 138 140 141 140 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -50.4 -50.7 -49.5 -49.7 -49.1 -49.2 -48.4 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 58 58 58 56 56 52 56 55 52 53 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 25 25 29 31 32 36 35 39 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR 86 81 75 72 69 71 76 92 94 110 134 167 174 200 MB DIV 30 55 71 69 56 109 32 106 10 59 54 85 67 LAND (KM) 1702 1625 1559 1511 1464 1337 1190 1128 1033 905 784 729 729 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 45.2 46.6 47.8 48.9 51.2 53.3 54.8 56.0 57.5 59.3 60.8 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 11 9 7 8 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 42 44 49 61 73 73 83 72 64 60 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 11. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 35. 44. 54. 57. 60. 60. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/12/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 8( 13) 13( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)