* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/12/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 33 45 57 68 74 83 88 95 100 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 33 45 57 68 74 71 43 53 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 54 70 90 109 52 65 78 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 6 6 7 3 2 2 3 8 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 70 5 24 90 111 71 163 317 255 103 251 319 236 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 28.9 28.7 29.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 159 159 159 163 167 165 166 151 148 157 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 158 156 156 156 159 163 161 162 145 139 146 150 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 64 61 62 63 62 65 67 68 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 44 46 45 51 49 49 47 47 30 23 24 200 MB DIV 12 -6 9 12 13 23 9 16 19 31 35 26 20 LAND (KM) 298 210 164 186 153 48 90 370 300 -11 -31 213 284 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.7 71.9 73.1 74.3 76.7 79.1 81.8 84.6 87.5 90.1 92.4 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 103 79 99 114 114 104 131 131 153 1 26 44 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 20. 32. 43. 49. 58. 63. 70. 75. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 101.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/12/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)