* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 09/12/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 52 63 71 76 78 76 69 65 61 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 52 63 71 76 78 76 69 65 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 35 40 44 50 61 72 77 74 67 60 56 57 SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 2 3 5 7 15 22 26 26 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -1 0 -3 -1 3 9 3 6 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 96 96 119 145 331 327 287 234 235 195 218 224 310 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 137 135 134 131 127 120 116 114 116 123 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 136 134 132 126 119 112 107 104 106 112 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.9 -51.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 66 61 60 54 47 44 43 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 16 16 17 20 20 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 105 110 108 110 111 102 77 64 54 42 20 0 -18 200 MB DIV 27 22 43 38 31 64 69 58 52 68 -29 -13 -25 LAND (KM) 286 393 526 657 795 1046 1230 1363 1451 1574 1761 2026 2304 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.9 17.4 19.1 21.1 23.0 24.8 26.9 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.6 24.9 27.2 28.7 29.9 31.0 32.2 33.9 36.2 38.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 11 11 11 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 8 8 9 10 8 5 2 0 0 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 33. 41. 46. 48. 46. 39. 35. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 09/12/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 09/12/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED