* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/12/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 96 101 106 113 119 127 130 134 131 128 122 V (KT) LAND 85 91 96 101 106 113 119 127 130 134 131 128 122 V (KT) LGE mod 85 93 100 104 107 110 112 115 120 123 122 117 111 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 1 4 3 2 3 4 2 2 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 2 -1 0 0 0 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 38 27 317 117 144 90 47 51 3 11 290 115 299 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 140 141 143 145 148 151 153 153 153 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 134 135 135 136 138 139 140 139 138 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -49.9 -49.3 -49.1 -48.6 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 12 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 57 58 53 55 53 53 54 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 24 25 28 29 31 34 34 38 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 81 74 71 66 68 67 75 83 86 115 133 158 155 200 MB DIV 45 60 63 70 64 79 48 83 51 70 44 82 30 LAND (KM) 1637 1576 1523 1479 1434 1277 1186 1102 977 888 837 805 778 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.6 21.7 23.0 24.0 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.9 46.3 47.6 48.8 50.0 52.0 53.8 55.3 56.7 58.0 59.4 60.9 62.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 41 44 48 56 64 74 76 69 69 55 58 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 28. 34. 42. 45. 49. 46. 43. 37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/12/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 19( 27) 27( 47) 30( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 6( 6) 42( 45) 27( 60) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)