* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122010 09/12/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 49 58 66 70 74 70 68 64 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 49 58 66 70 74 70 68 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 56 66 69 65 59 55 54 57 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 3 3 13 12 25 33 31 23 13 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -1 -4 3 4 0 0 -9 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 92 89 57 14 299 266 230 201 209 204 289 339 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 135 134 131 124 117 116 117 122 129 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 134 134 132 127 118 110 107 107 112 117 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 69 65 64 60 55 47 39 40 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 14 15 16 21 20 22 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 113 112 111 103 101 90 66 63 50 42 53 13 -14 200 MB DIV 24 34 37 31 41 58 82 49 73 26 -15 -47 -19 LAND (KM) 432 522 623 736 859 1104 1330 1460 1637 1830 2072 2333 2261 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 16.3 18.1 20.1 21.9 23.2 24.7 26.5 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 20.8 22.0 23.1 24.3 25.5 27.7 29.5 31.0 32.8 34.7 37.0 39.4 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 9 8 9 10 6 3 2 3 8 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 2. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 28. 36. 40. 44. 40. 38. 34. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 TWELVE 09/12/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 TWELVE 09/12/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED