* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/12/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 64 75 80 87 95 101 107 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 64 75 80 50 50 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 45 59 79 100 63 57 72 86 SHEAR (KT) 1 8 9 5 4 8 2 5 10 6 2 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 14 39 91 99 82 127 50 69 52 131 64 120 87 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 159 159 165 167 164 160 153 152 155 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 156 155 156 156 161 164 161 158 147 145 146 148 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 8 11 8 12 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 62 63 63 62 66 63 66 67 70 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 41 39 42 43 46 55 51 38 26 25 32 200 MB DIV 11 11 10 24 6 17 6 9 18 29 18 24 15 LAND (KM) 223 187 199 175 123 76 270 252 104 -130 66 108 -5 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 72.0 73.2 74.5 75.7 78.2 80.8 83.6 86.6 89.5 92.1 94.5 96.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 76 96 112 114 97 101 142 130 138 19 8 53 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 39. 50. 55. 62. 70. 76. 82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/12/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)