* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 126 126 126 129 131 138 135 130 126 123 118 V (KT) LAND 115 124 126 126 126 129 131 138 135 130 126 123 118 V (KT) LGE mod 115 128 132 130 128 124 123 124 125 122 117 114 111 SHEAR (KT) 4 1 6 6 11 6 1 7 7 6 1 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -5 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 28 112 135 81 73 26 341 10 242 284 79 224 188 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 142 144 147 149 152 153 153 153 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 135 135 135 138 138 140 140 139 137 136 134 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -49.7 -50.2 -49.3 -49.7 -48.9 -49.2 -48.3 -48.7 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 57 56 54 55 53 53 57 53 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 26 30 30 34 32 37 38 40 40 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR 72 70 65 72 72 76 100 103 120 140 167 163 177 200 MB DIV 54 67 77 73 129 20 85 72 71 3 99 19 43 LAND (KM) 1564 1513 1462 1437 1364 1236 1174 1037 922 819 759 741 767 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.6 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 47.5 48.7 49.8 50.8 52.8 54.5 56.0 57.4 58.9 60.4 61.8 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 48 54 62 69 70 82 70 65 56 63 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -31. -37. -41. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. 1. 5. 2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 11. 11. 11. 14. 16. 23. 20. 15. 11. 8. 3. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 50.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/12/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/12/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 40( 59) 40( 75) 44( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 41( 47) 49( 73) 80( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)