* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122010 09/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 47 56 65 71 77 78 76 74 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 47 56 65 71 77 78 76 74 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 50 60 65 65 63 61 62 66 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 6 4 3 12 8 14 19 22 13 12 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 7 7 9 -2 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 102 126 86 70 358 340 269 281 214 191 210 8 12 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.5 26.7 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 134 135 135 135 130 122 120 122 126 132 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 132 132 130 124 115 113 114 118 123 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 66 69 70 68 63 64 58 53 49 42 40 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 16 16 16 17 19 23 23 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 125 122 117 118 112 97 73 56 66 55 42 20 -9 200 MB DIV 37 46 41 52 67 65 84 83 99 45 -26 -45 -4 LAND (KM) 551 657 767 876 990 1214 1375 1562 1726 1944 2222 2502 2238 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.5 16.8 18.5 20.4 22.4 24.4 26.2 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 22.3 23.4 24.5 25.6 26.7 28.8 30.2 31.7 33.6 35.8 38.5 41.5 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 10 10 12 13 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 9 11 14 11 6 6 7 12 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 5. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 26. 35. 41. 48. 48. 46. 44. 41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 TWELVE 09/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 TWELVE 09/12/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED