* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 63 72 78 85 90 95 102 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 63 72 62 46 51 57 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 44 57 74 75 44 61 75 70 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 3 2 6 4 3 1 3 5 3 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 1 -4 5 0 3 SHEAR DIR 49 88 165 326 49 249 344 277 71 274 332 301 127 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 28.9 28.8 29.4 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 161 163 167 165 165 151 150 159 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 157 157 159 163 161 162 146 142 151 154 153 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 61 58 60 62 60 62 63 65 67 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 46 44 48 46 48 45 47 23 18 30 27 200 MB DIV 17 18 24 7 18 8 29 13 33 30 18 31 28 LAND (KM) 213 204 180 99 45 131 367 259 -51 22 235 145 -51 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.4 74.7 75.9 77.1 79.5 82.2 85.0 87.9 90.7 93.3 95.6 97.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 91 115 120 96 110 135 130 155 87 3 48 74 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. 3. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 38. 47. 53. 60. 65. 71. 77. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 106.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/12/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/12/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)