* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/13/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 137 138 136 135 134 131 135 127 121 117 112 107 V (KT) LAND 130 137 138 136 135 134 131 135 127 121 117 112 107 V (KT) LGE mod 130 138 138 134 130 125 122 122 121 118 112 107 101 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 4 6 4 4 9 7 8 3 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 -1 0 2 -2 0 -2 0 4 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 264 17 48 74 100 326 46 37 212 250 136 246 157 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 143 143 146 151 153 153 151 151 148 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 134 134 134 136 140 140 139 137 136 131 125 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -49.8 -50.1 -49.9 -49.4 -49.7 -49.0 -49.3 -48.5 -48.7 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 13 12 12 10 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 57 57 56 53 54 53 52 52 57 53 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 30 30 35 37 34 39 38 41 41 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 70 70 73 87 96 111 126 141 162 154 159 200 MB DIV 42 77 93 113 35 41 46 73 42 39 98 10 36 LAND (KM) 1517 1468 1427 1387 1326 1229 1155 1027 940 872 816 841 913 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.8 22.9 23.9 25.1 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.5 49.6 50.5 51.4 53.2 54.8 56.2 57.5 58.9 60.6 62.0 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 53 61 59 72 72 73 67 59 57 46 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -7. -14. -23. -34. -44. -52. -57. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 4. 0. -3. -5. -4. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 4. 8. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 1. 5. -3. -9. -13. -18. -23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 45.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/13/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 50( 72) 48( 85) 48( 92) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 42 83( 90) 57( 96) 88( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)