* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/13/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 40 54 66 73 81 87 93 95 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 40 54 66 52 66 71 77 80 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 20 21 23 28 37 50 45 60 72 83 90 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 11 5 7 2 6 2 5 9 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 1 -3 -1 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 87 90 48 59 86 5 92 16 146 330 249 273 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.4 28.8 29.1 30.0 30.3 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 163 165 169 167 160 149 154 169 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 156 159 160 165 163 154 139 142 154 157 150 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 10 12 10 12 10 12 9 11 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 59 61 62 59 63 64 62 65 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 45 49 50 45 38 41 32 4 13 1 10 200 MB DIV 29 24 16 28 25 5 14 9 36 4 52 11 48 LAND (KM) 239 197 123 62 32 223 294 127 -2 155 343 367 201 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.5 22.4 23.4 24.2 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 74.5 75.7 76.9 78.0 80.4 83.0 85.8 88.3 90.5 92.4 94.0 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 108 123 99 106 122 147 133 110 0 16 78 70 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 20. 34. 46. 53. 61. 67. 73. 75. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 111.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/13/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)