* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 133 134 133 132 132 129 124 118 117 111 104 V (KT) LAND 130 132 133 134 133 132 132 129 124 118 117 111 104 V (KT) LGE mod 130 131 128 125 122 119 120 122 119 113 107 104 99 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 5 7 7 3 4 5 4 6 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 1 0 -2 2 5 3 3 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 5 300 273 40 111 39 354 269 244 251 293 190 213 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 145 148 151 153 151 151 150 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 134 134 135 138 140 140 136 134 134 130 124 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.0 -49.9 -50.1 -49.5 -48.6 -49.3 -48.2 -49.2 -49.1 -48.5 -48.1 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 52 52 52 49 52 58 60 53 51 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 34 32 36 37 39 39 38 41 39 43 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 67 68 74 74 68 96 99 126 141 168 170 183 158 200 MB DIV 45 79 131 4 10 84 64 85 51 109 72 10 26 LAND (KM) 1470 1440 1405 1346 1292 1225 1131 1011 936 888 871 924 1072 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.9 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.3 50.2 51.1 51.9 53.6 55.1 56.6 57.9 59.2 60.4 61.9 63.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 51 58 62 62 69 73 65 63 54 52 34 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -23. -34. -44. -53. -57. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 11. 14. 16. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 5. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -13. -19. -25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/13/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 46( 69) 46( 83) 45( 91) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 61 67( 87) 83( 98) 89(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)