* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 63 68 72 73 76 72 66 60 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 63 68 72 73 76 72 66 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 47 52 62 67 66 63 62 64 66 64 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 4 8 10 18 17 19 7 27 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 8 7 9 -4 -2 0 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 137 111 82 14 335 280 287 244 230 26 27 35 51 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 135 134 129 123 120 123 128 133 139 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 130 130 129 122 116 114 116 119 123 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 56 58 57 57 49 41 34 36 36 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 17 19 20 19 20 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 124 126 119 112 107 87 65 67 51 38 13 -13 -41 200 MB DIV 61 49 47 21 38 75 67 70 -8 -24 -26 -12 -22 LAND (KM) 714 839 966 1079 1194 1388 1582 1760 2006 2302 2515 2285 2059 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.9 18.3 20.2 22.4 24.2 25.6 27.1 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.6 28.6 30.3 31.9 33.9 36.4 39.3 42.6 45.3 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 12 15 16 16 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 11 12 10 6 6 8 14 21 30 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 33. 37. 38. 41. 37. 31. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/13/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED