* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 28 40 55 67 74 83 90 97 101 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 28 40 55 53 36 47 55 61 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 20 21 23 29 38 42 32 43 55 68 81 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 9 5 9 5 9 2 4 7 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -1 -4 2 -6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 43 53 91 103 64 66 67 326 18 315 338 302 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.7 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 163 165 167 163 163 151 147 157 165 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 159 161 163 159 158 143 138 146 151 151 149 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 12 11 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 60 60 60 62 63 63 66 66 70 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 60 56 61 50 53 45 21 15 23 27 29 200 MB DIV 31 19 31 19 12 19 19 26 12 17 19 31 24 LAND (KM) 192 138 102 139 225 295 223 -51 -23 215 295 128 19 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.7 77.9 79.1 80.3 82.8 85.4 87.9 90.2 92.4 94.3 96.0 97.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 102 99 105 139 141 128 155 87 25 45 66 72 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 20. 35. 47. 54. 63. 70. 77. 81. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 117.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/13/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)