* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 128 130 130 130 127 121 116 115 108 101 93 V (KT) LAND 130 129 128 130 130 130 127 121 116 115 108 101 93 V (KT) LGE mod 130 126 122 119 116 114 116 116 114 110 105 99 93 SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 2 5 5 5 4 6 2 11 13 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 1 0 0 3 1 2 3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 307 261 112 230 72 96 52 211 269 191 272 230 207 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 146 146 150 151 151 151 151 148 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 135 136 136 139 139 137 135 135 132 125 124 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -49.8 -49.3 -49.4 -48.7 -48.9 -47.7 -47.3 -47.6 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 13 11 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 54 53 58 54 53 55 57 54 54 52 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 34 35 37 38 39 40 39 41 46 45 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 61 68 67 70 77 96 105 130 155 172 165 178 176 200 MB DIV 84 109 7 28 61 68 79 57 58 95 30 3 40 LAND (KM) 1421 1413 1358 1313 1274 1232 1113 1011 935 924 983 1043 1135 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.6 20.8 21.9 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.1 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.0 50.8 51.6 52.4 54.0 55.4 56.8 58.1 59.3 60.3 61.9 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 52 57 63 59 62 66 71 63 62 51 32 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -22. -34. -44. -53. -57. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -14. -15. -22. -29. -37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/13/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 43( 68) 43( 81) 43( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 88 93( 99) 97(100) 95(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)