* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 53 59 65 70 72 73 68 63 56 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 53 59 65 70 72 73 68 63 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 44 49 57 60 59 58 61 65 66 62 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 11 7 11 14 16 1 18 37 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -3 6 10 13 -1 0 0 -5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 91 79 349 347 294 282 242 226 245 2 19 30 55 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 137 139 136 125 120 120 122 127 134 143 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 133 134 130 118 113 112 113 116 122 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -49.8 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 60 57 55 52 41 35 36 35 40 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 17 18 17 20 23 20 20 20 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 130 117 111 102 96 72 74 71 64 31 7 -15 -35 200 MB DIV 52 36 21 43 66 63 102 44 -11 -54 -17 -14 -8 LAND (KM) 870 977 1086 1198 1312 1528 1692 1895 2127 2386 2470 2226 1980 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 18.2 19.8 21.6 23.3 24.8 26.1 27.6 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.6 31.4 33.2 35.3 37.6 40.1 42.7 45.5 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 13 14 14 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 10 10 7 6 7 10 14 23 26 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 5. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 24. 30. 35. 37. 38. 33. 28. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/13/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)