* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 56 71 80 88 94 99 103 101 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 56 71 48 45 51 55 59 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 37 42 55 72 52 46 60 76 90 70 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 7 6 10 9 10 9 5 10 1 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 -5 0 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 42 59 95 108 89 104 59 91 30 53 360 16 10 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 166 167 163 167 163 157 155 158 156 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 163 163 163 159 163 156 149 144 145 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 12 9 12 9 12 9 12 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 62 62 62 65 66 67 70 71 71 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 8 9 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 57 59 61 59 57 52 29 19 24 28 40 200 MB DIV 16 30 34 13 7 16 21 35 22 24 22 40 39 LAND (KM) 166 160 200 284 290 230 81 -139 56 215 227 97 -75 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.2 78.4 79.5 80.7 81.9 84.3 86.8 89.0 91.1 92.9 94.5 96.0 97.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 106 125 137 105 124 133 130 0 6 46 66 67 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 31. 46. 55. 63. 69. 74. 78. 76. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 119.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/13/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)