* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/13/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 130 132 133 131 128 121 114 109 107 99 92 V (KT) LAND 130 129 130 132 133 131 128 121 114 109 107 99 92 V (KT) LGE mod 130 126 122 118 116 114 116 114 111 107 104 99 94 SHEAR (KT) 9 1 1 6 2 1 3 10 9 4 3 7 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 9 5 0 5 4 8 -2 -4 3 2 5 1 SHEAR DIR 255 149 166 94 13 151 223 263 306 249 207 225 167 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 146 148 150 151 151 151 151 145 139 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 136 137 139 139 137 135 135 129 123 125 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -50.5 -49.6 -48.8 -49.5 -48.4 -49.2 -48.1 -48.1 -46.8 -46.8 -46.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 52 54 55 51 50 53 54 54 54 54 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 38 40 42 42 40 41 42 41 43 47 44 43 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 86 82 89 102 119 135 170 155 178 148 176 200 MB DIV 74 5 23 69 73 55 106 43 84 -1 42 34 72 LAND (KM) 1388 1347 1303 1271 1244 1189 1064 977 921 930 987 1108 1248 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.9 21.2 22.4 23.4 24.7 26.2 28.0 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 50.9 51.6 52.4 53.1 54.5 56.0 57.4 58.7 59.9 61.2 62.7 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 59 66 63 62 70 68 70 64 58 46 28 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -22. -34. -44. -53. -57. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -18. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 7. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. 1. -2. -9. -16. -21. -23. -31. -38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/13/10 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/13/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 43( 68) 46( 82) 45( 90) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 83 98(100) 94(100) 98(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)