* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/13/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 63 67 74 75 79 79 77 69 62 53 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 63 67 74 75 79 79 77 69 62 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 58 64 70 76 74 70 69 70 71 69 63 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 6 6 12 13 16 12 28 33 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 5 9 10 10 -5 -4 1 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 79 30 355 302 290 288 222 203 49 37 43 51 68 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.4 28.0 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 140 136 131 123 121 122 126 130 138 145 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 135 130 124 115 112 114 117 120 125 129 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.6 -50.2 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 54 54 46 38 32 38 40 44 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 19 18 22 20 20 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 128 117 113 107 99 95 85 88 54 26 -14 -46 -57 200 MB DIV 29 34 31 42 26 79 62 3 -17 -15 -32 -26 -17 LAND (KM) 1009 1118 1228 1336 1447 1648 1821 2039 2301 2486 2334 2188 1971 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.8 20.3 21.9 23.5 24.9 26.0 27.5 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 26.9 27.9 28.9 29.9 30.8 32.6 34.5 36.7 39.3 41.9 44.6 46.8 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 11 9 6 7 10 14 18 24 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 22. 29. 30. 34. 34. 32. 24. 17. 8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/13/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/13/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)