* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/13/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 71 81 88 93 98 95 93 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 71 42 43 47 52 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 36 41 53 69 43 43 55 68 80 88 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 9 12 7 14 9 9 10 12 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 -6 0 -5 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 65 104 93 106 93 74 81 37 11 306 310 287 284 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 160 161 166 161 155 155 159 163 160 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 160 159 155 155 161 153 146 143 145 147 145 142 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 11 10 10 10 10 11 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 65 63 65 69 69 68 69 74 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 16 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 68 68 66 64 54 37 34 14 37 23 31 200 MB DIV 33 35 17 5 17 16 21 25 46 51 51 37 43 LAND (KM) 241 281 291 231 184 201 28 -131 84 254 347 225 10 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.7 21.8 22.6 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.9 80.9 82.0 83.0 85.2 87.3 89.3 91.2 92.6 94.0 95.6 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 113 122 76 52 98 136 92 25 5 58 65 64 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 380 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 32. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 4. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 33. 46. 56. 63. 68. 73. 70. 68. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/13/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/13/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)