* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/14/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 123 126 125 128 123 119 115 108 103 98 90 V (KT) LAND 125 123 123 126 125 128 123 119 115 108 103 98 90 V (KT) LGE mod 125 121 117 116 115 116 117 115 112 108 101 95 89 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 6 9 5 1 3 3 2 8 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 2 1 1 3 4 2 6 3 1 8 SHEAR DIR 279 276 74 97 113 59 257 283 228 133 187 195 201 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 148 150 151 151 151 151 149 141 139 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 137 139 139 137 137 137 133 125 122 122 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.0 -49.1 -48.6 -48.1 -47.5 -47.5 -47.7 -46.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 56 56 52 52 49 51 58 56 54 52 52 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 40 39 44 43 45 40 44 45 44 44 45 45 850 MB ENV VOR 71 85 95 97 106 120 132 149 163 164 159 172 172 200 MB DIV 0 23 66 36 46 60 19 54 12 0 26 86 54 LAND (KM) 1330 1285 1245 1221 1204 1104 1015 956 932 956 1028 1183 1204 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.7 24.0 25.5 27.1 28.9 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.9 51.7 52.4 53.2 53.9 55.4 56.6 57.8 59.1 60.6 62.3 63.5 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 67 66 66 72 71 73 63 65 53 34 22 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -18. -29. -39. -47. -52. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 4. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 1. 0. 3. -2. -6. -10. -17. -22. -27. -35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/14/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/14/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/14/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 35( 60) 38( 75) 43( 86) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 56 77( 90) 47( 95) 69( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)