* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/14/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 61 65 70 71 72 72 68 62 53 47 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 61 65 70 71 72 72 68 62 53 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 62 66 70 67 63 62 63 64 62 56 SHEAR (KT) 0 2 7 8 15 14 24 13 16 34 37 36 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 4 2 11 3 -2 -3 -4 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 8 345 294 271 270 241 206 207 8 8 13 22 34 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.9 28.5 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 137 132 127 121 120 124 128 138 145 146 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 134 131 125 120 114 113 116 119 127 131 126 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 53 58 56 55 44 44 37 40 41 47 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 20 22 22 21 20 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 114 107 101 94 88 86 76 77 46 14 -8 -32 -55 200 MB DIV 41 26 33 39 69 89 50 -23 -14 -20 -12 -12 13 LAND (KM) 1074 1185 1297 1393 1490 1655 1876 2136 2455 2401 2181 1982 1831 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.9 19.5 21.3 22.9 24.4 26.0 27.7 29.2 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.5 28.5 29.5 30.3 31.1 32.8 35.1 37.7 40.8 43.9 46.9 48.7 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 13 14 16 16 16 13 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 9 8 6 7 10 15 22 28 24 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 20. 25. 26. 27. 27. 23. 17. 8. 2. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/14/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/14/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)