* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/14/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 49 60 70 78 86 89 88 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 49 46 33 42 50 53 53 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 41 31 41 52 64 79 44 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 14 13 13 13 10 9 10 7 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -4 1 -3 0 -5 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 73 74 75 84 95 73 81 49 90 20 42 38 141 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 160 162 166 160 155 156 157 156 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 157 155 155 157 161 152 145 144 144 143 143 141 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.4 -50.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 11 8 11 9 11 7 11 8 11 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 67 67 68 71 70 73 74 76 78 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 11 12 10 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 73 73 69 75 66 61 53 35 47 59 80 73 200 MB DIV 46 17 -3 7 26 27 29 17 33 27 43 37 61 LAND (KM) 291 291 224 181 147 167 -55 -41 154 232 164 2 -181 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 80.8 81.8 82.9 83.9 86.1 88.2 90.2 92.0 93.6 95.2 97.0 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 117 73 11 80 89 142 85 23 38 49 70 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 24. 35. 45. 53. 61. 64. 63. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/14/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/14/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/14/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)