* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/14/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 116 119 120 127 124 120 116 112 104 100 93 V (KT) LAND 115 112 116 119 120 127 124 120 116 112 104 100 93 V (KT) LGE mod 115 110 108 108 110 114 117 116 112 106 98 92 87 SHEAR (KT) 10 3 5 5 3 1 10 2 10 4 14 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -1 0 3 -5 -2 3 4 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 280 35 27 98 66 166 214 158 238 138 218 177 187 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 148 150 153 153 152 152 145 139 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 137 138 139 141 140 138 137 129 122 122 121 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -49.8 -50.2 -50.5 -49.4 -48.3 -49.0 -47.7 -48.2 -47.1 -47.5 -46.9 -46.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 55 53 51 55 57 57 59 53 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 39 38 43 43 38 46 44 44 45 45 44 46 47 850 MB ENV VOR 79 87 86 96 100 115 133 172 153 171 151 167 175 200 MB DIV 28 81 13 17 70 74 29 121 9 35 27 95 83 LAND (KM) 1293 1255 1221 1203 1193 1074 983 933 923 972 1070 1240 1152 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.4 21.7 23.2 24.7 26.2 27.7 29.5 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.1 52.7 53.5 54.2 55.7 57.0 58.4 60.0 61.5 62.9 63.9 64.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 66 68 70 73 70 76 63 61 46 28 19 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -22. -30. -37. -42. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -19. -22. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. 1. 4. 5. 12. 9. 5. 1. -3. -11. -15. -22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/14/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/14/10 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/14/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 33( 68) 41( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 98 98(100) 99(100) 93(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)