* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/14/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 71 74 77 78 77 77 75 68 59 50 42 V (KT) LAND 60 67 71 74 77 78 77 77 75 68 59 50 42 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 74 77 79 77 70 66 66 68 66 61 55 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 19 16 20 14 8 31 37 39 29 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 4 3 6 13 4 -2 -5 -6 -3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 360 326 280 299 276 242 228 34 22 22 22 9 6 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.4 28.1 28.6 28.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 134 129 125 121 123 126 131 140 147 144 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 127 121 118 115 117 118 121 129 132 126 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 51 56 51 44 37 40 40 43 52 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 18 22 22 23 21 22 20 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 107 100 100 95 99 98 93 75 45 6 -16 -34 -53 200 MB DIV 31 32 39 78 89 69 40 -40 2 -17 -21 -28 -17 LAND (KM) 1172 1278 1385 1475 1567 1743 2019 2311 2457 2300 2088 1839 1618 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.4 18.1 19.9 21.9 23.5 24.8 26.4 28.4 30.4 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.4 30.3 31.1 31.8 33.7 36.5 39.4 42.3 45.1 47.7 49.4 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 14 16 15 14 15 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 9 7 6 10 15 20 28 21 21 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 0. -4. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 17. 17. 15. 8. -1. -10. -18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/14/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/14/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 6( 10) 6( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)