* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 09/14/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 46 58 69 78 85 87 87 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 36 30 42 51 58 60 38 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 34 29 38 49 62 76 46 32 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 10 10 6 11 4 7 4 10 7 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 99 88 85 111 78 67 22 41 336 13 6 60 121 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 166 166 157 153 156 160 158 156 153 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 158 157 160 161 150 143 144 146 144 143 142 141 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 12 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 64 64 66 67 70 72 73 73 74 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 9 10 11 11 12 14 11 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 60 61 57 54 47 37 33 48 70 87 93 200 MB DIV 19 -2 13 13 13 29 39 47 12 35 42 53 40 LAND (KM) 315 269 227 243 208 -54 -43 163 297 194 23 -155 -337 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.2 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.3 83.4 84.5 85.6 88.0 90.1 92.0 93.6 95.3 97.0 99.1 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 10 8 8 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 137 120 107 135 151 83 26 39 56 77 4 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 21. 33. 44. 53. 60. 62. 62. 63. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 09/14/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 130.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 09/14/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 09/14/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)