* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 118 120 124 126 127 121 119 113 104 95 88 V (KT) LAND 115 115 118 120 124 126 127 121 119 113 104 95 88 V (KT) LGE mod 115 112 112 112 113 115 114 113 110 103 94 87 80 SHEAR (KT) 1 6 9 5 14 7 5 10 11 19 23 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 -1 0 6 2 SHEAR DIR 66 108 138 95 98 121 185 197 252 206 208 200 192 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 150 151 153 151 152 152 144 139 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 137 139 140 140 138 138 136 127 122 124 120 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -49.9 -49.3 -49.1 -48.5 -48.1 -47.9 -47.1 -47.8 -47.7 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 55 53 57 57 59 56 57 57 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 41 42 36 42 40 43 43 47 46 45 43 46 850 MB ENV VOR 76 83 92 94 103 128 144 166 162 160 166 155 174 200 MB DIV 61 41 55 61 104 69 58 56 31 25 53 73 76 LAND (KM) 1263 1240 1222 1216 1159 1031 959 902 902 987 1133 1237 1100 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.0 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.1 26.7 28.4 30.4 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.7 53.3 54.1 54.8 56.3 57.6 59.2 60.9 62.3 63.3 64.1 64.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 67 67 72 68 71 68 65 54 42 26 18 21 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. -2. -5. -13. -22. -30. -37. -42. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. -2. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 0. 3. 2. 5. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 6. 4. -2. -11. -20. -27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/14/10 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/14/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 36( 70) 40( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 86 82( 97) 71( 99) 89(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)